The New York Knicks are set to host the Los Angeles Lakers in the debut of NBC’s “Sunday Night Basketball”, taking place at Madison Square Garden the Sunday before the Super Bowl (7 p.m. EST).
The Knicks (30-18) have won five straight, inspiring newfound optimism after a brutal stretch of games. Meanwhile, the Lakers (29-18) are struggling to find consistency after a hot start to the season, splitting their last 28 games after a 15-4 start.
If New York wants to extend their winning streak and make minor history by becoming the first team to win on Sunday Night Basketball, these are the top three bullet points in the game plan.
1. Run Luka Doncic off the three-point line
Luka Doncic is connecting on just 34.7% of his three-point attempts this season. Despite his inefficiency from deep, the Lakers are actually a much better team when Luka fires off a bunch of threes.
When Doncic has shot at least 11 threes this season, the Lakers are 15-3. When he shoots 10 threes or fewer, they are 10-11.
Even more impressively, Los Angeles is 8-1 on the road when Doncic shoots at least 11 threes.
One reason for the stark split is that Doncic’s shooting tends to improve as he increases his volume of attempts. In games where he took at least 11 threes, he shot 36.4% from deep (4.6 makes per game), and when he took fewer than 11 threes, he shot 32.5% (2.8 makes per game). He seems to gain confidence as he racks up attempts, whereas he can be inefficient on a smaller diet of shots.
Unsurprisingly, if Doncic shoots better on threes as he shoots more of them, it means his scoring volume takes a major jump when the threes are flying. Doncic averages 36.8 points per game when taking at least 11 threes, compared to 31.0 when he doesn’t, an increase of nearly six points per game.
Another noticeable difference is Doncic’s ball security. He averages 3.7 turnovers per game when taking 11-plus threes compared to 4.7 when he takes 10 threes or fewer. It would seem that forcing Doncic to dribble into traffic inside the arc leads to a substantial increase in mistakes.
Forcing turnovers has been a key cog in the Knicks’ recent turnaround. Since the start of their five-game win streak, New York ranks fourth-best in the NBA with 17.0 opponent turnovers per game.
The Lakers are a perfect opponent for the Knicks to keep this going. On the season, Los Angeles ranks 24th in the NBA with a 13.5% turnover rate. Doncic is the primary culprit for that, leading the team with 4.3 turnovers per game.
And if the Knicks want to get as many turnovers out of Doncic as possible, they need to run him off the three-point line and force him to make plays inside the arc. Simultaneously, Doncic will become slightly less prolific as a scorer, pressuring less talented players into picking up the slack.
2. Attack the rim
The Lakers have the league’s 25th-ranked defensive rating at 118.0, per Basketball Reference. It’s mainly because they have been terrible at defending shots from the floor. They have allowed an effective field goal percentage of 56.3%, third-worst in the NBA, better than only the Brooklyn Nets and Utah Jazz.
In other areas of defense, Los Angeles is quite solid. They are top-12 in forced turnover rate (12th, 13.0%), defensive rebounding rate (9th, 74.4%), and free throw rate allowed (8th, .197).
If you want to exploit the Lakers’ 25th-ranked defense, you have to do it with your shooting—in particular, layups and dunks.
The Lakers struggle to defend threes, too, as they rank 26th with a 37.0% conversion rate allowed from deep. However, it’s near the basket where the Lakers’ defense has been nothing short of embarrassing. Within three feet of the hoop, they are allowing opponents to shoot a league-high 76.3%.
Yes, you read that correctly. The Lakers’ opponents make more than three-quarters of their field goal attempts near the basket.
This is a golden opportunity for the Knicks to continue asserting their dominance in the paint, a promising trend that has emerged as of late.
During their five-game win streak, New York has found a new formula. Instead of living and dying by the three, they have been shutting opponents down defensively and bullying them in the paint on offense.
The Knicks are averaging 20.0 made baskets per game in the restricted area over the last five games, ranking third-best in the league over that span. This is a major improvement over their previous season average of 16.0 prior to the start of their win streak, which ranked 21st through Jan. 20.
The biggest spikes have come from OG Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Mikal Bridges. Over the last five games, Anunoby is making 5.0 shots per game in the restricted area, tied for sixth-best in the NBA. Meanwhile, Bridges is second on the team at 3.2, while Hart is third at 3.0. Before the streak, Anunoby, Bridges, and Hart averaged 2.8, 2.2, and 1.9, respectively.
New York’s wing trio has clearly been putting an emphasis on attacking the basket more frequently. Combined, they are making 11.2 field goals in the restricted area per game over the last five contests, a big-time jump from their 6.9 mark beforehand. The increase of 3.2 from Anunoby, Bridges, and Hart represents the majority of the Knicks’ team-wide increase of 4.0 (16.0 to 20.0).
That does not happen by accident. New York has shifted its mentality and philosophy.
As talented as the Knicks are from downtown, they are at their very best when they are asserting their will. They’ve been doing it lately, and tonight, they could not ask for a better matchup to keep it going.
3. Get it over with quickly
The Lakers have only scored two more points than their opponents this season (5,474-5,472). The fact that they have a 29-18 record is a massive overachievement relative to their overall performance.
How do you win 62% of your games with a 0.0 net rating? Simple: Deliver in the clutch.
In games decided by 10-plus points, the Lakers are 14-16. In games decided by single digits, they are 15-2.
The Lakers rarely blow teams out, and they get blown out their fair share, but if the game comes down to the wire, they almost always prevail.
In clutch situations (final five minutes of fourth quarter or overtime, score within five points), the Lakers have a downright unbelievable net rating of +29.8. Suffice to say, this leads the NBA.
The crunch-time dominance is primarily thanks to their offense, which is delivering an absurd offensive rating of 131.1 in the clutch (first in the NBA).
Who deserves the most praise? None other than LeBron James.
The NBA’s all-time leading scorer has put his experience on display in clutch situations. In 27 minutes of clutch basketball, James has 32 points on 11-of-17 shooting, adding eight rebounds, five assists, one turnover, one steal, and one block, accruing a plus-minus of +27. He’s made 9-of-12 twos, 2-of-5 threes, and 8-of-11 free throws, bringing his true shooting percentage to a king-like 73.3%.
Doncic has also been poised in the clutch, scoring 21 points in 30 minutes alongside eight assists to one turnover (+31 plus-minus). He’s only 5-of-13 from the field, but three of his makes were threes, and he’s 8-of-9 from the stripe, putting his true shooting percentage at an impressive 61.9%.
If it weren’t for the clutch superpowers of their megastar duo, the Lakers would be a .500-ish basketball team. This is a mediocre squad masquerading as a contender solely thanks to their future Hall-of-Famers putting on their capes when it matters most.
That means it is imperative for the Knicks to put the Lakers away before Doncic and James’ clutch-shooter badges activate.
Starting fast is always critical in the NBA, but some teams offer more leeway to recover from a slow start than others. The Lakers are a team that will make you pay if you let them hang around until late in the game.
Jalen Brunson’s heroics are enough to topple most NBA teams in clutch situations, but that might not be the case against the Lakers. More than ever, it’s crucial for Mike Brown to emphasize to his squad that they must come out with an edge, looking to put this game so far out of reach that the mop-up squad is in before the Lakers get a chance to do what they do best.
