We can spend all day talking about the mini-battles that will define the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals.

Whether it’s Karl-Anthony Towns against the Cleveland Cavaliers’ double-big starting lineup, Mikal Bridges vs. Donovan Mitchell, or whoever the Cavs try to throw at Jalen Brunson, this is poised to be a chess match for the ages between Mike Brown and Kenny Atkinson.

But if Brown were to simplify the New York Knicks’ game plan down to one primary goal, there’s no doubt as to what it would be: keeping Cleveland off the free throw line.

Why the Knicks’ foul discipline will determine the series

Cleveland had the NBA’s sixth-best offensive rating in the regular season and ranks fifth-best in the playoffs. They’re an electric offensive team, loaded with shooters and playmakers across their rotation.

However, for as many positive traits as the Cavaliers have on offense, they rely heavily on free throw shooting to maintain their elite offensive efficiency. Their offense can be nearly unstoppable when the free throw trolley is operational, but when it’s out of order, the Cavaliers can be easily beaten.

Through 14 playoff games, the Cavaliers are averaging 28.9 free throw attempts per game, ranking second in the NBA behind only the Denver Nuggets (30.2). In the regular season, post-James Harden trade, Cleveland ranked fifth with 26.1 free throw attempts per game.

So far in the playoffs, Cleveland has depended on a high volume of free throw attempts to win games. The Cavaliers are 4-0 when they attempt more than 30 free throws, compared to 4-6 when they attempt under 30 free throws. If they shoot fewer than 28 free throws, their record drops to 1-5.

The Cavs’ charity-stripe dependency was especially apparent in the Detroit series. Cleveland went 3-0 when attempting more than 30 free throws, while the Pistons went 3-1 when holding the Cavaliers under 30 attempts. In Cleveland’s Game 7 victory, they shot an astounding 44 free throws.

If the Cavaliers are held off the free throw line, their offensive weaknesses are exploited.

Cleveland has a 17.0% turnover rate in the playoffs, better than only the Lakers among all 16 teams. They are also shooting just 34.0% from downtown, ranking seventh overall and fourth among the remaining teams by a wide margin.

The Cavs have required a high volume of those hyper-efficient trips to the line to cover for their lost possessions on turnovers and their subpar shooting from deep. Without a hefty dosage of free points, they haven’t been able to consistently overcome the turnovers and mediocre shooting.

In playoff games where they shoot over 30 free throws, the Cavaliers are averaging 117.0 points per game. When shooting 30 free throws or fewer, they are averaging 107.7 points.

That’s nearly a 10-point difference.

If you’re the Knicks, all of these numbers should send a loud-and-clear message: The defensive game plan must be built around the prevention of free throw attempts.

The scary sign for New York is that limiting free throw attempts has not been a strength in these playoffs. They are just 10th out of 16 teams with an opponent free throw rate of 0.291. It was a regular season issue, too, as they ranked 17th out of 30 teams (0.265).

The silver lining, though, is that the Knicks have been able to win comfortably despite their foul woes. They have had three playoff games in which they allowed over 30 free throw attempts, and they went 3-0, with all wins by at least 14 points.

Cleveland, though, is a different animal. The Knicks could get away with this against the Hawks and 76ers, but the Cavaliers have proven that they are extremely difficult to beat when they host a parade at the free throw line. That’s why it’s critical for New York to make adjustments geared toward limiting free throws, rather than resting on the fact that they survived the issue against different opponents.

But don’t allow this to reduce your confidence, New York fans. There are quite a few things going the Knicks’ way here. For one, they are equipped with disciplined wing defenders who should do a solid job of keeping James Harden and Donovan Mitchell off the line.

Harden leads the Cavs with 7.4 free throw attempts per game in the playoffs, while Mitchell is fourth at 4.7. They both had their way with Detroit’s defenders when it came to drawing fouls. Against the Knicks’ starting lineup, though, Harden and Mitchell won’t see any foul-prone players who can be consistently baited into giving up free throws.

All four of the non-bigs in New York’s starting lineup are committing under 2.7 personal fouls per 36 minutes in the playoffs: Jalen Brunson (2.2), Josh Hart (2.2), Mikal Bridges (2.5), and OG Anunoby (2.6). Comparatively, all four of the Detroit Pistons’ starting non-bigs averaged at least 2.7 fouls per 36 minutes in the playoffs: Tobias Harris (2.7), Cade Cunningham (2.7), Ausar Thompson (3.5), and Duncan Robinson (3.6).

So, while Harden and Mitchell will certainly get their share of buckets against New York, the Knicks seem to have the right defenders to keep them off the foul line, which is where the Cavs’ backcourt duo is truly at their most dangerous.

Harden and Mitchell have not been shooting well from the field. In the playoffs, Harden has an effective field goal percentage of 50.0%, while Mitchell is at 50.7%. Neither number is ideal offensive efficiency for an NBA team in 2026. The Knicks would be thrilled to give up those numbers over a seven-game series.

If the Knicks’ wing defenders can just entice Harden and Mitchell into jacking up jumpers while preventing drives and avoiding fouls, the Knicks’ defensive efficiency should look great over the long run.

The real issue is in the frontcourt. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are up to a combined 10.9 free throw attempts per game in the playoffs after posting 9.3 in the regular season. Both players are shooting over 5.0 freebies per game.

That’s a concern for New York, as the Knicks’ big men have had foul woes in the playoffs. Karl-Anthony Towns is committing 4.9 fouls per 36 minutes, while Mitchell Robinson is at 4.2.

The Knicks need Towns and Robinson to stay disciplined and keep Allen and Mobley off the foul line. New York can trust their wing defenders to do their part in the effort to limit Cleveland’s free throws, but Towns and Robinson are the true X-factors here.

Take away the Cavaliers’ free points, and the Knicks will likely win their first Eastern Conference title of the 21st century. But if the Knicks lose their focus and do too much hacking-and-whacking, as Clyde Frazier would say, they will leave the door open for a Cleveland upset.