The New York Knicks (25-16) are returning home from a 1-3 West Coast trip to take on the Phoenix Suns (24-17), desperately needing a resurgent victory.

Losers in seven of their last nine games, it’s gut-check time for the Knicks, who are on the brink of a free-fall down the Eastern Conference standings. They have already ceded the No. 2 seed to the Boston Celtics, and their lead over the No. 4 Toronto Raptors has dwindled to one game.

Only 2.5 games separate the Knicks from the No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers: play-in territory. That’s 2.5 games closer than the Knicks are to the top-seeded Detroit Pistons.

Suffice to say, this is not where Knicks fans expected their team to be on Jan. 17.

With the trade deadline just 23 days away, the Knicks need to make a run quickly, or the team may be pressured into making sweeping changes to preserve its hopes of competing for the 2026 NBA title.

It all has to start tonight against Phoenix. Seen below are the Knicks’ three keys to Saturday night’s game plan.

Not only are these keys pivotal for defeating the Suns tonight, but they are also imperative for the team’s long-term hopes of establishing itself as a legitimate title contender in 2026. If the Knicks achieve these three keys, they can set themselves back on the right track toward building championship-caliber habits.

1. Pursue turnovers on defense

The Knicks’ offense is at its best in transition. New York ranks third-best in the league with 1.20 points per possession in transition. They are particularly excellent for an Eastern Conference team; they lead the East in this category and are the only Eastern team in the NBA’s top five. It could be their greatest advantage come playoff time.

However, the Knicks are not generating enough of these opportunities. They are 15th in the league with 21.2 transition possessions per game.

This can be traced back to the Knicks’ defense, which ranks just 19th in opponent turnover percentage (12.5%) and 18th in steals per 100 possessions (8.1).

The best way to spark transition offense is to generate turnovers defensively, specifically live-ball turnovers, and the Knicks are below-average in that department. As a result, they are leaving meat on the bone with arguably the most efficient facet of their offense.

The Knicks have struggled even more in this category as of late. Across their recent 2-7 stretch, New York is down to 7.2 steals per 100 possessions, which would rank 27th over the course of the full season.

Luckily, the Knicks are facing the right opponent to spark their transition offense.

The Suns rank 21st in the NBA with a turnover percentage of 13.4%. Phoenix is home to four of the NBA’s 64 worst players in turnover rate (turnovers committed per 100 plays): Oso Ighodaro, Royce O’Neale, Collin Gillespie, and Devin Booker.

To pinpoint specific players, look for OG Anunoby and Miles McBride to hunt steals against the Suns’ turnover-prone lineup. Anunoby has only three steals over his last five games. McBride is averaging a career-low 0.9 steals per 36 minutes, less than two-thirds of his career average (1.4).

Anunoby and McBride are the two best untapped sources of steals for New York right now. Still, the Knicks’ entire lineup should be aggressive in the passing lanes and on the ball tonight, looking to create chances for their offense to get out in the open floor.

Not only would these steals improve the Knicks’ offensive efficiency, but there are hidden benefits beyond the raw results on paper. These transition opportunities are the type of synergetic plays that could help the Knicks rejuvenate their team chemistry and general sense of flow.

2. Take away the 3-ball

Perhaps the Knicks’ most consistent issue since the start of the season has been their inability to deny three-pointers. They are allowing the third-most made threes per game (14.6) and the fourth-highest three-point percentage (37.4%).

Phoenix will challenge the Knicks in this area. The Suns love to fire away from downtown, ranking seventh in the NBA with 40.1 three-point attempts per game. They convert at a good clip, ranking 12th at 36.2%.

Hand-in-hand with their aggression in pursuit of turnovers, the Knicks’ defense must be aggressive in running Phoenix’s three-point shooters off the line. If New York can force the Suns to take two-point shots, it should be a successful night defensively.

Phoenix ranks just 20th in two-point percentage (54.0%). This is largely because the Suns settle for a lot of mid-range jumpers; they take just 18.8% of their field goal attempts from within three feet of the basket, fifth-lowest in the NBA, but they shoot 12.9% of their shots from 10-16 feet, third-highest.

If you force the Suns to dribble inside the arc, there is a good chance they will take a jumper instead of a layup, which is always a win for the defense.

Tonight, New York’s defense has a chance to simultaneously build confidence in two critical areas of weakness. Ahead of tip-off, Mike Brown must preach a tactical form of aggressiveness to his players. If executed correctly, the Knicks can not only shut down the Suns’ offense and win the game, but they can take steps in the right direction when it comes to forcing turnovers (to spark their elite transition offense) and preventing three-pointers.

3. Crash the offensive glass

One of the few things the Knicks can always be trusted to do is crash the offensive glass, especially at Madison Square Garden. They snatch 34.7% of their own misses at home, third-best in the league.

This is a major mismatch against the Suns’ defense. Phoenix is an excellent defensive team overall, ranking seventh-best in defensive rating, but rebounding is their main weakness on that end of the court. The Suns are 28th in defensive rebounding percentage (71.9%).

Phoenix is stingy on the perimeter, ranking eighth-best in the NBA with a 34.7% conversion rate allowed on threes. For that reason, the Knicks’ three-point-happy offense could chuck up a lot of bricks tonight. It makes it all the more imperative for New York to maximize their advantage on the glass.

Second chances will be pivotal for the Knicks’ offense against a defense that excels at preventing made threes. If the Knicks can’t get those second chances, it could be another middling night for their offense, which has scored under 120 points in six of the last eight games (0-6 record).

Until the Knicks’ defense figures things out (which, ideally, starts tonight with a favorable matchup to fix their primary woes), New York will only be able to win games if their offense is dominant. The Knicks have yet to prove they can win low-scoring games consistently.

When scoring above the league average of 116.1 points, New York is 19-5. When scoring 116 points or fewer, the Knicks are 6-11. Compare that to the grittier Suns, who are a much more respectable 12-12 with 116 points or fewer. That includes a 5-3 record since Christmas Day.

This is why the Knicks must strive to maximize every offensive advantage they have. It remains to be seen whether this team, as constructed, is capable of figuring things out defensively, but we know they are capable of being the league’s best offensive team; after all, they are the best offensive team at home (first with a 122.3 home offensive rating). Every night, the Knicks should be trying to break the scoreboard. That is their formula for now.

Tonight, it means their goal should be to show no mercy on the offensive glass. Forget transition defense; every miss needs to be yours, New York.