When you’re analyzing teams and players this early in an NBA season, it’s important to focus on trends that are sustainable. Miles McBride is not going to hit 85.7% of his threes this season. OG Anunoby isn’t going to make 12.5% of his. It’s too early to worry about shooting efficiency. What we can begin to analyze are shot profiles.
On that note, Jalen Brunson has displayed one very encouraging shot-profile anecdote over the Knicks’ first two games that has a realistic chance of being sustained over the course of the season.
October 28, 2024 (7:30 p.m. ET): Matchup
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Jalen Brunson’s increased opportunities around the rim
In our season preview for Jalen Brunson, we talked about how the addition of a floor-spacing center in Karl-Anthony Towns would open up space around the basket that he’s never had before as a New York Knick. The hope was that Brunson could use this improved spacing to increase his frequency of field goal attempts around the rim. Two games in, things are playing out as planned.
Brunson has attempted 21.2% of his field goal attempts from within three feet of the basket. That would be his highest rate since the 2020-21 season and a significant increase over his 12.7% rate in 2023-24, which was fifth-lowest among 20+ PPG scorers.
We're already seeing Jalen Brunson maximize the benefits of the spacing provided by Karl-Anthony Towns. Nobody is protecting the basket here as KAT pulls Turner out, and Brunson takes advantage.
— Knicks X-Factor (@knicksxfactor) October 27, 2024
Brunson's % of FGA within 3ft:
'23-24: 12.7%
'24-25: 21.2%#Knicks #NewYorkForever pic.twitter.com/5aUmLGQnxu
Brunson has made 71.4% of those attempts, which would be the second-highest rate of his career and a large increase over his 63.6% last season, but it’s too early to start reading into his efficiency on these shots. It would be fantastic if he maintains that rate, and he has a good chance to do so, as the improved spacing should theoretically improve the quality of his rim attempts as much as the frequency. However, the sample size remains small and is prone to heavy fluctuation until we get deeper into the season.
What matters is that we’re already seeing Brunson’s shot profile change for the better. That is a sustainable positive sign for his 2024-25 outlook.
Brunson’s upward trajectory as an around-the-basket scorer will be tested on Monday night when the Cleveland Cavaliers storm into Madison Square Garden. Thanks to the tandem of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, Cleveland has established itself as one of the best rim-protecting defenses in the NBA. Last season, the Cavaliers allowed a 66.0% field goal percentage on attempts from within three feet, which tied the Knicks for second-best in the league. Through three games this year, they are faring even better at 63.5%.
While the Cavaliers excelled at limiting efficiency around the rim, they did let up an above-average frequency of attempts in that area. Cleveland allowed its opponents to take 26.1% of their field goal attempts from within three feet, which ranked 10th-highest in the league. So, the Cavaliers will give you some driving lanes, even if it is difficult to finish them.
For Brunson, the challenge on Monday will be to continue getting plenty of attempts around the rim. Maybe he will finish them at a high clip, maybe not – shooting efficiency is erratic, and the Cavaliers have a fantastic pair of rim protectors who force you into awkward attempts near the basket. The key factor for the sake of Brunson’s long-term sustainability is to see him maintain his heightened frequency of attempts near the rim. As long as he keeps that up, his overall scoring efficiency will be even better than it was over his first two seasons in New York.
Even if you are poor at finishing around the rim, those shots are still far more efficient than floaters. Brunson made 51.9% of his attempts from 3-10 feet last season, which is well above the NBA average (45.2%) and better than the best team in the NBA in that range (Kings, 50.9%). From 0-3 feet, Brunson’s 63.6% field goal percentage was well below the NBA average (69.9%) and worse than the worst team in that range (Trail Blazers, 63.7%).
Yet… we’re still talking about a difference of 63.6% versus 51.9%. That’s very significant. The fewer floaters and the more layups Brunson takes, the more efficient he will be, regardless of how great he is at floaters relative to the league average or how mediocre he is at layups relative to the league average.
So far, Brunson’s layup frequency is up significantly. That’s exactly what the Knicks hoped would happen when they added Towns to play beside him. Going forward, Knicks fans should watch closely to see if Brunson can continue racking up attempts near the basket at a higher rate than last year.
Monday night’s game against a fantastic interior defense will be a great test. Will Brunson shy away from attempts near the basket due to the elite rim-contesting ability of Allen and Mobley, therefore settling for less efficient shots? Or will he continue maximizing his newfound spacing to hoard more layup attempts, staying aggressive regardless of who is across from him?
The Cavaliers have shown they will give up a relatively high rate of attempts near the rim, so it would be encouraging to see Brunson take them regardless of whether he finishes against Cleveland’s top-notch rim protectors. Early in the season is the time for developing good habits, and Brunson is well on his way.
