New York Knicks basketball is back!
Before the ball tips off, it’s time to lock in our exact stat predictions for the Knicks’ players and the team as a whole.
With championship expectations and a new head coach, what will Mike Brown’s version of the Knickerbockers look like?
Player stat predictions
Jalen Brunson
2024-25 stats:
- 35.4 MPG
- 26.0 PPG
- 7.3 APG
- 2.9 RPG
- 0.9 SPG
- 0.1 BPG
- 2.5 TO
- 18.5 FGA
- 6.1 3PA
- 6.9 FTA
- 48.8% FG
- 38.3% 3P
- 53.9% 2P
- 82.1% FT
- 55.1% eFG
- 60.5% TS
Under Mike Brown, I generally expect the Knicks’ centerpieces to play slightly fewer minutes and take slightly fewer shots, resulting in improved efficiency. Jalen Brunson should be the main beneficiary of this revamped philosophy.
For Brunson, I particularly expect upticks in his three-point and free-throw shooting. Brunson had a down year from behind the arc, shooting 38.3%, so I expect him to trend back toward the 40.7% mark he had over his first two seasons in New York. Brunson should see more catch-and-shoot looks in this offense, which will help him tremendously.
Brunson also dropped to 82.1% from the line last year, down from 83.9% over his first two seasons with the Knicks, so I expect a jump there as well.
2025-26 predictions:
- 34 MPG
- 25.0 PPG
- 7.8 APG
- 2.5 RPG
- 0.6 SPG
- 0.1 BPG
- 2.3 TO
- 18.0 FGA
- 6.5 3PA
- 6.0 FTA
- 49% FG
- 40.5% 3P
- 53% 2P
- 83.5% FT
- 56.5% eFG
- 61% TS
Karl-Anthony Towns
2024-25 stats:
- 35 MPG
- 24.4 PPG
- 3.1 APG
- 12.8 RPG
- 1.0 SPG
- 0.7 BPG
- 2.7 TO
- 16.9 FGA
- 4.7 3PA
- 5.7 FTA
- 52.6% FG
- 42.0% 3P
- 56.7% 2P
- 82.9% FT
- 58.4% eFG
- 63.0% TS
The Knicks’ main goal with Karl-Anthony Towns should be to get him more looks from deep. When you have a big man who can hit 42% of his shots from deep, he needs to be getting more than the 4.7 attempts per game he had last season, his fewest since 2018-19.
I think they’ll accomplish that goal. It will not only maximize Towns’ efficiency, but create more space for his teammates as well.
Towns’ rebounding might decrease assuming he plays more minutes at the 4 alongside Mitchell Robinson. The reward, though, is that he could get more opportunities to get out in transition instead of crashing the glass, which should buy him more layups.
In many ways, Towns is poised to improve upon his already outstanding offensive efficiency.
2025-26 predictions:
- 33.5 MPG
- 24.8 PPG
- 4.2 APG
- 10.5 RPG
- 0.8 SPG
- 0.5 BPG
- 3.0 TO
- 16.0 FGA
- 6.0 3PA
- 5.0 FTA
- 52% FG
- 41% 3P
- 58% 2P
- 85% FT
- 60% eFG
- 64% TS
OG Anunoby
2024-25 stats:
- 36.6 MPG
- 18.0 PPG
- 2.2 APG
- 4.8 RPG
- 1.5 SPG
- 0.9 BPG
- 1.4 TO
- 13.9 FGA
- 6.2 3PA
- 3.1 FTA
- 47.6% FG
- 37.2% 3P
- 56.1% 2P
- 81% FT
- 55.9% eFG
- 59.1% TS
As shown by the Knicks’ caution with Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson to begin the season, I think they will be extremely careful with their injury-prone players throughout the regular season, keeping the playoffs as their main focus. That means OG Anunoby should see a noticeable dip from his career-high 36.6 minutes per game last season.
With the Knicks looking to push the pace more this season, I think they will slightly diminish Anunoby’s offensive responsibilities while asking him to be more of an aggressive playmaker on defense, hoping he can create live-ball turnovers to spark transition chances. For that reason, I see him competing for his second steals-per-game title this year.
Offensively, Anunoby should see his three-point efficiency improve with more looks generated from the corner. However, he is due to tick down from the stripe after shooting nearly 5% above his career average last year.
2025-26 predictions:
- 33.0 MPG
- 17.0 PPG
- 2.0 APG
- 4.5 RPG
- 2.0 SPG
- 0.9 BPG
- 1.2 TO
- 12.0 FGA
- 6.5 3PA
- 2.5 FTA
- 46% FG
- 38.5% 3P
- 56% 2P
- 78% FT
- 57% eFG
- 58% TS
Mikal Bridges
2024-25 stats:
- 37.0 MPG
- 17.6 PPG
- 3.7 APG
- 3.2 RPG
- 0.9 SPG
- 0.5 BPG
- 1.6 TO
- 14.4 FGA
- 5.6 3PA
- 1.4 FTA
- 50% FG
- 35.4% 3P
- 59.4% 2P
- 81.4% FT
- 57% eFG
- 58.5% TS
With projected decreases in shots for Brunson, Towns, and Anunoby, I believe Mikal Bridges will be the primary beneficiary. Bridges is too talented a scorer to play as small an offensive role as he did last year (19.6% usage rate). I think Brown recognizes that and will try to redirect some quality looks his way.
The Knicks’ focus with Bridges is getting him to play with more aggressiveness. He had an abysmal free-throw attempt rate of .100 last season, shooting just 1.4 free throws per game against 14.4 field goal attempts. That doesn’t cut it in today’s NBA for a player who takes that many shots; a healthy diet of free throws is essential to keep up with the scoring efficiency in today’s league.
Over the previous two seasons, Bridges had a free-throw attempt rate of .262, shooting 4.1 of them per game and making 85.7% of those attempts. I think we will see Brown find ways to utilize the space created by Brunson and Towns to open up looks for Bridges around the basket, generating more free-throw attempts. It can also help him turn some of his mid-range fadeaways into more efficient layups.
2025-26 predictions:
- 36.0 MPG
- 19.5 PPG
- 4.0 APG
- 3.0 RPG
- 1.0 SPG
- 0.7 BPG
- 2.0 TO
- 16.0 FGA
- 6.0 3PA
- 4.0 FTA
- 52% FG
- 37% 3P
- 60% 2P
- 85% FT
- 59% eFG
- 60% TS
Bonus player prediction: Jordan Clarkson will be a problem (for the Knicks)
My predictions have been generally optimistic so far. Here’s a pessimistic one: Jordan Clarkson’s efficiency off the bench will become a maddening storyline for Knicks fans.
While I like that New York added a proven isolation scorer to the bench unit, as they sorely lacked one last year, I’m not sure Clarkson is the right choice for the role. Clarkson is a bygone breed of yesteryear: A “pure hooper” whose job is to come off the bench and chuck up a high volume of inefficient jump shots, making him look good based on bench PPG even though he’s hurting the team by producing bad possessions.
Clarkson’s career true shooting percentage is a dismal 53.9%. That includes a 54% mark last season, which ranked second-worst among players with a usage percentage at least as high as Clarkson’s 27.7%. Considering he shot 18.4 field goal attempts per 36 minutes, that’s a lot of bricks per minute when he’s on the court.
The league has gone away from this mold of sixth man, leaning closer to guys like Miles McBride, who have some isolation chops in spurts but focus on shooting efficiently off the catch and playing good defense. Clarkson provides neither.
Clarkson is a career 33.6% three-point shooter. He’s not even good at generating or converting shots from the corner; only 16.9% of his career threes were from the corner, and he made just 35.6% of those. This makes him a difficult player to fit into a ball-movement-oriented offense.
His defense is poor; according to Dunks And Threes, Clarkson ranks in the 11th percentile in defensive EPM entering the 2025-26 season.
Alright, I’ll end my Clarkson rant there. Hopefully for New York, his efficiency looks better in a new role with a much more talented roster than the Utah team he played with over the last two years.
Still, I’m not holding my breath, as Clarkson wasn’t much better even when he was playing for playoff teams in his prime. Now at 33 years old, I think the Knicks will quickly regret pinpointing Clarkson for a key bench role, and he will be out of the rotation by the playoffs. Chalk that up as my bold prediction.
Team stat predictions
Overall
- Offensive rating: 121.0 (1st)
- Defensive rating: 114.5 (15th)
- Net rating: +6.5 (4th)
I’m buying the hype on this Knicks offense. I think they have all the right pieces and the right coach to maximize them. Provided they stay healthy, they are one small step away from fielding the league’s best offense after finishing fifth last year, and I believe they will take that step.
Defensively, though, I see the Knicks fielding a similar finish to their 14th-ranked rating last season (114.3). Simply put, their defensive ceiling will have a cap on it as long as their starting lineup features Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns, especially as they creep toward their 30s.
Still, the defense should be at least average, which means a league-best offense would make New York a top-five team in the NBA and potentially the best in the East.
If the Knicks achieve my prediction of a +6.5 net rating, it would be the third-best mark in franchise history, trailing only the 1969-70 team (+7.9) and the 1993-94 team (+7.5). Knicks fans know where those seasons ended.
Four Factors
Offense:
- Effective field goal percentage: .570 (2nd)
- Turnover percentage: 11.5% (3rd)
- Offensive rebounding percentage: 27.0% (6th)
- Free throw rate: .190 (15th)
The Knicks’ offensive excellence will be based on their efficient shooting from the floor.
With above-average three-point shooters everywhere, including two All-Stars who can shoot above 40%, the threes will be raining down, especially with Mike Brown looking to generate more attempts.
As a product of that three-point success, the Knicks will have a sea of space to work with inside the arc, allowing two-point maestros like Brunson, Towns, and Bridges to cook.
Brunson’s ball security as the primary ball handler helps New York rank as one of the lowest teams in turnovers. Meanwhile, if the Knicks can get a relatively healthy season from Mitchell Robinson, they should jump from their No. 12 ranking in offensive rebounding rate from a year ago.
Defense:
- Effective field goal percentage: .550 (18th)
- Turnover percentage: 13.5% (9th)
- Offensive rebounding percentage: 74.5% (18th)
- Free throw rate: .175 (5th)
With two exploitable isolation defenders in the starting lineup, the Knicks will allow teams to generate plenty of quality looks from three, limiting their ability to rank as an above-average defense from the floor.
However, they can make up for that with their ability to produce turnovers and prevent free throws.
The Knicks were 13th in opponent turnover percentage last year, and I see them jumping a few spots; more steals will come as a byproduct of Brown encouraging his team to push the pace. They were also sixth-best in preventing free throws, which I see them replicating with a similar roster of disciplined defenders.
New York was 19th in defensive rebounding percentage last year. More games from Robinson would help them improve in that area, but we will also likely be seeing less of Josh Hart this year, which balances things out.
Overall, I see this being an average defense. Threes will rain down, but they will find ways to make up for it in the margins.
Record, Playoffs
- Record: 55-27
- Eastern Conference Finish: 2nd (Behind Cleveland)
- First round: Defeat Indiana, 4-1
- Semifinals: Defeat Detroit, 4-3
- Conference Finals: Defeat Cleveland, 4-3
- NBA Finals: Lose to Oklahoma City, 4-1
The Knicks don’t have the defense to win as many regular season games as Cleveland, but they will comfortably earn the East’s second seed, gaining at least five games of separation from the third-seeded squad.
From there, we can see how golden an opportunity the Knicks have to make a run in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
In the first round, I see them drawing a feisty Tyrese Haliburton-less Pacers team, asserting their dominance without Haliburton in the fold. In the semifinals, they begin a new rivalry with a rematch against the young Pistons, scraping by in seven.
New York will take on Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals without home-court advantage, but I’ll take the team with Jalen Brunson in any Eastern Conference playoff series.
The run stops there; Oklahoma City will repeat in comfortable fashion. Still, the Knicks end their 27-year NBA Finals drought, delivering the most memorable season of the 21st century.
Predicted Eastern Conference Standings:
- Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25)
- New York Knicks (55-27)
- Detroit Pistons (48-34)
- Orlando Magic (47-35)
- Atlanta Hawks (46-36)
- Milwaukee Bucks (44-38)
- Indiana Pacers (41-41)
- Boston Celtics (40-42)
- Chicago Bulls (38-44)
- Philadelphia 76ers (36-46)
- Toronto Raptors (35-47)
- Charlotte Hornets (30-52)
- Miami Heat (26-56)
- Brooklyn Nets (20-62)
- Washington Wizards (17-65)
Predicted Western Conference Standings:
- Oklahoma City Thunder (63-19)
- Denver Nuggets (58-24)
- Houston Rockets (55-27)
- San Antonio Spurs (50-32)
- Golden State Warriors (49-33)
- Minnesota Timberwolves (47-35)
- Los Angeles Lakers (45-37)
- Dallas Mavericks (41-41)
- New Orleans Pelicans (40-42)
- Memphis Grizzlies (39-43)
- Portland Trail Blazers (38-44)
- Los Angeles Clippers (36-46)
- Phoenix Suns (34-48)
- Sacramento Kings (25-57)
- Utah Jazz (15-67)
