For the first time since 1999, the New York Knicks are back in the NBA Finals.
They’re facing a familiar opponent in the San Antonio Spurs, the same team they faced in their last Finals bout.
The Spurs are easily the most formidable team the Knicks have faced in this historic run. If they want to continue their dominance, they must work matchups as well as they have over the last month.
Who’s guarding Jalen Brunson?
Jalen Brunson had the best game of his career at the very start of the Wembanyama era, but both teams have changed drastically since his 61-point game. No Spur has had a massive amount of possessions against Brunson this season that stands out.
Stephon Castle has the most possessions with 29, where Brunson only took two shots, with neither landing.
Is that enough evidence?
If you look at the NBA Cup Final between these two teams, Castle wouldn’t leave Brunson’s hip right from the opening tip.
Castle has been one of the best on-ball defenders in these playoffs, holding players such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 21.2 points per 75 possessions, Julius Randle to 8.9, and Deni Avdija to 14.2.
Brunson has gotten the better of smaller defenders in this run. For that to be the case in this series, De’Aaron Fox will have to be the one to switch onto Brunson.
Although not happening often, Brunson has routinely taken advantage when Fox is in front of him, averaging 33.8 pts/75 on 68.2% this season.
Despite his quick nature and ability to get steals, Brunson hasn’t turned the ball over once against Fox over the last two seasons.
How do you stop Wembanyama?
In reality, I don’t know if there’s a way to really stop a guy like Wembanyama.
But slow him down? Nullify his impact?
The Knicks have the guys for that.
Since Wembanyama entered the league, there’s only one player to hold him to less than 20 pts/75 and less than 45% true shooting in 100 possessions: OG Anunoby.
Our All-Defensive Second Team member has been the best defender against Wembanyama since he first set foot on professional hardwood.
This season has been Wemby’s best year both in general and against Anunoby, averaging his highest pts/75 in the matchup.
The Knicks could also use their seven-foot defensive specialist, Mitchell Robinson, who looks like he was made for this matchup.
In the three games this season against the Knicks, Wemby averages 24.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks on 65.9% true shooting.
Will bigs on Hart work?
In the NBA Cup, the Spurs weren’t afraid to leave a smaller defender on Karl-Anthony Towns and have either Wembanyama or Kornet float near Josh Hart.
We’ve seen this in past series, where guys like Onyeka Okongwu, Joel Embiid, and Jarrett Allen will play on Hart in the corner because of his poor shooting.
This could potentially leave Towns on an island with someone like 6-foot-5 Devin Vassell or Keldon Johnson.
When Towns was guarded with players of similar statures, such as James Harden, Max Strus, Kelly Oubre, or even a taller forward like Jalen Johnson, he was the driver of the offense.
With Hart’s improved shooting in the Cavaliers series, this could be null, but it’s something to think about.
Is the Knicks’ historic offense sustainable?
Talking heads and Twitter fingers will try to say that the Knicks’ offense and specific players who’ve stepped up will soon “return to the mean”.
The biggest of which is Mikal Bridges, who has stepped up like no other in this run for New York.
Over his last nine games, he’s averaging 18.7 points on 62.8% from the field and 37.9% from beyond the arc.
His game shouldn’t be described as a “return to the mean,” because there’s a clear difference in his approach.
In the regular season, Bridges averaged 5.1 3-point attempts; in the playoffs, he’s knocked that number down to 3.1.
And with fewer 3-point attempts, he’s sticking to his strengths of the corner; in the playoffs, he’s shooting 39.1% in those spots.
One of the biggest gripes about Bridges’ offense was his lack of aggressiveness, as he chose to fade away rather than attack.
In the playoffs, he’s upped his at-the-rim attempts from 3.4 to 4.2, and is shooting almost 9% higher from that spot.
If one player is due for a “return to the mean,” it’s Jalen Brunson, but in a way that benefits the Knicks.
In the series against the Cavaliers, Brunson shot just 24% from 3-point range. In the first three games, it stood at 12%.
His 2-5 performance in the limited time he had in the domination that was game four is a sign that he should be back to that deadeye shooter we know him as.
