In our 2024-25 New York Knicks statistical preview series, we’ll be breaking down key members of the roster from an analytical perspective, focusing on three specific categories for each player:
- How his role and outlook is affected by the Knicks’ roster turnover
- Strengths from the 2023-24 season he will aim to maintain
- Areas where he can improve off of the 2023-24 season
We begin with the Knicks’ newest All-Star, Karl-Anthony Towns.
Effect of roster changes
Back to the center position
After spending the majority of his first seven NBA seasons at center, Towns moved to the power forward position over the last two seasons after Minnesota traded for All-Star center Rudy Gobert.
In New York, Towns will move back to the 5, at least for the time being while Mitchell Robinson is sidelined. There was speculation after the trade regarding how New York would utilize Towns, but the preseason confirmed that Tom Thibodeau currently views Towns as a 5 on this roster.
While Towns experienced the best team success of his career after moving to the 4, that had more to do with the team’s collective talent level than it did with the 4 being an ideal spot for Towns. As an individual, Towns had his best years at the 5, specifically when it comes to his offensive efficiency.
Here is a comparison of Towns’s numbers from 2019-20 to 2021-22 (primarily playing the 5) versus 2022-23 to 2023-24 (primarily playing the 4):
- 2019-20 to 2021-22 (100% of minutes at C): 63.2% TS (6.4% above 56.8% NBA average), +5.0 OBPM, +0.5 DBPM, +5.5 BPM
- 2022-23 to 2023-24 (85% of minutes at PF): 62.3% TS (4.2% above 58.1% NBA average), +1.8 OBPM, +0.9 DBPM, +2.7 BPM
As you can see, Towns’s true shooting percentage over his final three seasons at center was 6.4% above the NBA average over that span, compared to just 4.2% in his two seasons at power forward. Meanwhile, his offensive box plus-minus decreased from +5.0 to +0.9, while his defensive box plus-minus barely changed, thus significantly lessening his overall impact.
In addition to his shooting efficiency being less impressive versus league average, Towns’s passing impact declined.
According to Cleaning The Glass, Towns ranked in the 74th percentile at his position in AST:USG ratio from 2019-20 to 2021-22. This metric tells us how often a player gets an assist relative to how often they had the ball. So, when he was a 5, Towns was better at generating assists than 74% of his peers.
However, after being moved to the 4 from 2022-23 to 2023-24, Towns’s percentile ranking in AST:USG ratio dropped to 55th. He was better at generating assists than only 55% of his peers as a 5.
For the Knicks, it will be key for Towns to maintain his improved passing at the center position, as New York must replace the playmaking ability that Isaiah Hartenstein brought to the position. If Towns can get back to being one of the NBA’s better passers at the 5, it would significantly boost the flow and chemistry of the Knicks’ offense.
As he returns to the center position in New York, look for Towns to be more effective offensively than he was over the past two seasons next to Gobert.
What he wants to maintain
Elite shooting
Towns owns a career three-point percentage of 39.8%. After a rocky start over his first two seasons, that mark has jumped to 40.4% over the past seven seasons.
In 2023-24, Towns made 41.6% of his attempts from downtown. It was a strong bounce-back year after he made just 36.6% of his threes in a limited 29-game sample the previous season.
Towns’s touch extends to the free throw line, where he is an 83.9% career shooter. He has only gotten better, too, as each of his three best career marks came within the past four seasons. That includes performances of 87.3% and 87.4% over the last two seasons. This will go a long way for a Knicks team that ranked 16th in free throw shooting during the regular season (78%) and 14th out of 16 teams in the playoffs (75.7%).
Spacing
Towns’s elite shooting will have a positive domino effect that elevates the rest of New York’s roster.
In the entire Tom Thibodeau era, the Knicks have never had a center that was even remotely threatening from three-point range. Opposing centers could play drop coverage on pick-and-rolls all night long, never worrying about the pick-and-pop threat.
With Towns in the fold, opposing centers will be left in a quandary every time Towns sets a high ball screen for Jalen Brunson. Do I drop and take away Brunson’s mid-range? Or do I stay high to take away Towns’s three, risking leaving the lane open for Brunson?
To see the positive ripple effect yielded by the spacing Towns brings, just look at the interior scoring efficiency of his teammates in Minnesota. In 2023-24, both of the Timberwolves’ starting wings shot over 70% from within three feet of the basket: Anthony Edwards dropped in 70.7% of his attempts from that range, while Jaden McDaniels connected on 78.3%.
Compare that to a Knicks team devoid of spacing from its big men. New York did not have a single non-center on the roster who made 70% or more of his attempts from within three feet; OG Anunoby led the way at 69.1%. As a team, the Knicks ranked 26th with a 65.8% field goal percentage from within three feet, which dropped to an abysmal 62.1% in the playoffs.
Having Towns to pull defensive anchors away from the basket will create easier layup opportunities for the Knicks’ perimeter scorers.
Defensive effort in the playoffs
While Towns’s defense has been a question mark throughout his career, he earned rave reviews for his tremendous defensive effort against Hall-of-Fame level competition during the 2024 playoffs. His defense played a key role in Minnesota’s series victories over Phoenix and Denver, as he was the primary defender against the Suns’ Kevin Durant and the Nuggets’ Nikola Jokic.
Across 16 games in the 2024 playoffs, Towns held his matchups to a FG% 3.6 points below their usual average, according to NBA.com. He was especially effective in the semifinals against Jokic and the Nuggets, holding his matchups 7.1 points below their usual FG%.
What he’ll aim to improve
Defensive consistency
Towns must prove he can maintain the defensive effort he showed in the 2024 playoffs, especially now that he is reuniting with Tom Thibodeau. If he can take what he did in those playoffs and replicate it consistently, the Knicks will be poised to dominate teams on a nightly basis.
In the 2023-24 regular season, Towns’s defense was approximately average. He held his matchups to a FG% 0.9 points below their usual average, while his defensive EPM (Estimated Plus-Minus) was -0.1. The Knicks can live with that level of defensive production alongside his elite efficiency on offense, but it’s tantalizing to think about how dominant Towns can be if he buys in on defense each and every night.
As long as Towns can turn it back up when the playoffs arrive, though, New York should be in good shape to make a deep run in the summer.
Health
Towns missed only five games over his first four NBA seasons. Since then, he’s missed 132 games in five seasons, an average of 26 per season. With another injury-prone core player in OG Anunoby, health will be as critical as ever for the Knicks this season.
