Much has been made of Tom Thibodeau‘s rigid rotations and minutes management as New York Knicks head coach. But it’s never felt as pressing as it does in year five, with a litmus test, first-round series against the Detroit Pistons fast approaching.
Because for just the second time in his coaching tenure, Thibodeau and the Knicks enter the playoffs with a fully healthy rotation. Yet no decision might prove more polarizing than his allocation of minutes for sharpshooter Landry Shamet.
A late-season addition thanks to a preseason injury, the seven-year veteran has got the hot hand as of late. Shamet is shooting 49% from three-point range over his last 10 games, including a 7-of-13 performance in the regular-season finale:
Zach LaVine, a two-time All-Star, is the only player to shoot threes at a better clip over his team’s final 10 games.
Shamet ended the season on a heater comparable to a guy making $44 million this season. Not bad for a guy on the league’s veteran minimum.
OG Anunoby leads the Knicks with 68 made threes since the All-Star Break. Shamet is right behind him with 51, and on 120 attempts, good for a 42% clip.
So, why then, the concern over him seeing the floor?
For one, Thibodeau is infamous for his short rotations.
Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, Anunoby, and Karl-Anthony Towns make up the starting lineup, with Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson the only guaranteed players to come off the pine.
That leaves an opportunity for one, or maybe two of: Precious Achiuwa, Cameron Payne, and Shamet. Payne is the backup point guard, he’s going to get (at least) some first-half run while Brunson rests. That leaves Achiuwa and Shamet.
According to Cleaning the Glass, the Knicks are outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per 100 over the 1,394 possessions with Shamet on the floor this season. That ranks in the 87th percentile league-wide.
For reference, New York’s starting lineup is outscoring opponents by 4.1 points per 100 over 1,898 possessions shared, which ranks in the 75th percentile.
Shamet isn’t going to start. And he’s not going to get minutes over anyone in that five-man group. But his minutes are won minutes for the Knicks.
But come the playoffs, the rotations only get shorter.
Here’s how deep Thibodeau went into the bench in last year’s first-round series against the Philadelphia 76ers:
- Game 1: 8 players (W)
- Game 2: 8 players (W)
- Game 3: 9 players (L)
- Game 4: 8 players (W)
- Game 5: 7 players (L)
- Game 6: 7 players (W)
See that Game 5 loss that featured a seven-man rotation? Notice how Thibodeau didn’t adjust for Game 6?
There’s always more to it; context the game provides in the moment—that’s lost in that moment—unable to be revisited.
But the point stands: Thibodeau is going to find “his guys” in the postseason. And then he’s going to stick with them. For better or for worse.
Shamet needs to be one of them.
