The New York Knicks are good at basketball. Really good, in fact. They have the NBA’s fifth-best record (34-18) and fifth-best point differential (+5.9).
Knicks fans have waited decades for this caliber of basketball to return to the Garden. The team’s +5.9 point differential ranks as New York’s best since the 1993-94 season (+7.0). It is on track to be the fifth-best mark in franchise history, trailing only the two legendary championship squads of ’69-70 and ’72-73, the aforementioned ’93-94 team, and the ’92-93 bunch.
It has hardly ever been better than this for the orange-and-blue faithful. Yet… it still doesn’t feel like enough.
As great as this Knicks team is, fans cannot help but yearn for more. While the Knicks have clearly established themselves as one of the NBA’s top teams, it is progressively beginning to feel as if they are cemented in the league’s second tier, one step behind the true championship contenders of the Association.
New York’s performance against fellow title contenders is the reason for this. Against the four teams with a better record than them – Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Boston, and Memphis – the Knicks have a 1-5 record, with the lone win coming against Memphis. Against the other three teams, who are the consensus top-three title favorites by a wide margin, the Knicks are 0-5 while losing by an average of 18.2 points.
Enjoyment of the Knicks’ greatness has become overshadowed by the fanbase’s collective fear that the team has already reached its ceiling and will inevitably succumb to another early demise in the playoffs. Considering the assets that have been invested into this squad, that fear is understandable.
But there is a lot of basketball left to be played. Throughout Tom Thibodeau’s tenure, the Knicks have routinely hit their stride later in the year. It would not be surprising if that happened once more with a team that experienced a massive overhaul in the offseason. They can still prove themselves capable of hanging with the big boys.
So, what exactly is it that separates the Knicks from the NBA’s top tier? And how can they close that gap in time for the playoffs?
Here are some of the issues that stand between the Knicks and the NBA’s exclusive group of indisputable championship contenders.
Defense, defense, defense
Defense. That’s it. That’s the article.
Offensively, there is very little to complain about with this Knicks team. Not only do they have the league’s second-best offensive rating (120.8, per Basketball Reference), but they are lighting up the scoreboard at a historic pace.
This is the best offense in Knicks history by a longshot. Yes, scoring is up in the NBA, but this holds up even when you account for league averages. The Knicks are scoring 6.8 more points per 100 possessions than the average team, the best mark in franchise history. It is 1.4 points better than the 2012-13 team’s franchise record (5.4) and nearly double the second-best team (2010-11, 3.6 points).
The Knicks are not as untouchable as the Cavaliers, Thunder, and Celtics because they are not getting stops at an elite level. It is really that simple.
Each of the aforementioned three teams ranks top-eight in both offense and defense:
- Cleveland: #1 offense (122.5), #8 defense (111.9)
- Oklahoma City: #6 offense (118.5), #1 defense (105.0)
- Boston: #4 offense (119.8), #5 defense (110.6)
While the Knicks have an offense that can hang with anybody, their defense is mediocre. They rank 17th in defensive rating (114.7), per Basketball Reference. Even when your offense is dominant, a bottom-half defense will be your undoing when the teams you’re competing against are elite on both sides of the ball.
To understand why the Knicks are not a top-three NBA team, we need to dig deeper into their defensive woes. The offense is playing well above the championship-caliber threshold. All of New York’s answers lie on the defensive end.
These are some of the Knicks’ primary defensive issues.
Corner threes
Stopping teams from behind the arc is New York’s biggest weakness. The Knicks allow the highest three-point percentage in the NBA (38.0%). New York is not going anywhere past the second round if this number remains the same.
This is mostly due to their inability to stop the corner three. New York ranks third-worst with a 41.5% conversion rate allowed on corner threes.
The Knicks are respectable at preventing attempts from the corners, ranking 14th with 23.7% of opponent three-point attempts coming from the corners. This suggests that the Knicks’ main focus is to improve at minimizing the quality of the corner threes they allow.
To do it, they must close out tighter when contesting in the corner, while also doing what they can to ensure the shots are taken by worse shooters. Too often, the Knicks allow known sharpshooters to get comfortable in the corner and fire off clean looks. Hard closeouts on these players should become a priority, while the Knicks should play the numbers game and beg poorer shooters to take corner threes instead.
Attempts under the basket
When it comes to efficiency near the hoop, the Knicks have actually done a nice job. Opponents are shooting 66.1% from within three feet, ranking fourth-best in the league.
The issue is that New York allows its opponents to get to the rim too often. The Knicks are allowing 26.4% of opponent field goal attempts to be taken from within three feet, which ranks fourth-worst. Their company in the top five: Chicago, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. Not great.
Karl-Anthony Towns’ rim protection at the five was the primary concern when adding him to the Knicks’ lineup (especially in comparison to Isaiah Hartenstein). This is the category where that has reared its ugly head the most.
Even if the Knicks are doing a good job limiting opponent efficiency near the basket, it is still a major issue to allow opponents to get there too frequently. A bad layup is still way better than a great mid-range shot. The goal of NBA defenses is to force as many middies and as few layups/dunks as possible, and the Knicks are not getting it done.
Limit shot attempts (defensive rebounding/turnovers)
The Knicks are not a terrible defensive rebounding team, but their 75% defensive rebounding rate is 15th. They are capable of better than that.
Becoming a dominant defensive rebounding team can help the Knicks cover for some of their other shortcomings. Limiting teams to consistent one-and-done trips will save a lot of points in the long run even if you continue struggling to minimize shooting efficiency.
Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart are doing all they can, combining to produce 17.8 defensive rebounds per game. The issue is that nobody else on the team is collecting even four defensive boards per game. Precious Achiuwa ranks third with 3.7 per game off the bench.
OG Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, and Mikal Bridges are combining to produce just 8.0 defensive rebounds per game, barely more than Hart by himself (7.4). Anunoby is around his career average, but Brunson and Bridges have seen noticeable drops in this department. Brunson is averaging 2.4 defensive boards after grabbing 3.1 last year, while Bridges is an even worse offender, dropping from 3.7 to 2.2.
If the Knicks’ other defensive woes are going to persist as an unavoidable byproduct of the roster they have constructed (i.e. two exploitable pick-and-roll defenders in Brunson and Towns), they need their wing players to start crashing the defensive boards harder to help make up for it.
Elite defensive rebounding is not necessary to field an elite defense. Oklahoma City is 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage. However, the Thunder are elite in every other area, so rebounding is not vital for them. For the Knicks, defensive rebounding is a potential key to improved defense.
Another area where the Knicks can improve from middle-of-the-pack is forcing turnovers. They are 15th with an opponent turnover percentage of 12.9%. It is another area where Bridges is coming up short, as his steal percentage is a career-low 1.3%. In his early Suns days, he was well over 2%.
This works in conjunction with defensive rebounding. Both are methods to minimize the number of shot attempts taken by the opponent.
You can field an elite defense by limiting shot attempts even if you allow the opponent to shoot efficiently. The Orlando Magic are providing an excellent example of this right now. Orlando is allowing an effective field goal percentage of 54.6%, which ranks 18th and is close to the Knicks’ 55% (24th). However, the Magic are first in defensive rebounding percentage (78.1%) and second in opponent turnover percentage (15.5%). As a result, they have the third-ranked defense (109.5).
New York should first try to see if there are schematic and technical changes that can facilitate improvements to their defense from a shooting efficiency standpoint, particularly when it comes to limiting corner three-point percentage and preventing attempts near the basket. It is also possible that, with time, they will run into better luck from three. It seems unsustainable that a team with OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges will continue allowing the highest three-point percentage in basketball.
However, if the Knicks find that they simply do not have any answers to become an elite defense in terms of shooting efficiency, they must pivot to trying to become an elite defense on the strength of limiting shot attempts. This entails making a more focused effort on crashing the defensive glass and making aggressive attempts to force turnovers. If they can pull this off, their defense could climb to the level it needs to reach even if they continue allowing high shooting percentages.
Whatever solution he comes up with, Tom Thibodeau’s entire focus needs to be on the defensive side of the ball. New York’s offense is Larry O’Brien-ready. If the defense can just climb from average to a top-10 level, the Knicks will start to look more like serious contenders.
